Native South American genetic structure and prehistory inferred from hierarchical modeling of mtDNA

Genetic diversity in Native South Americans forms a complexpattern at both the continental and local levels. In comparingthe West to the East, there is more variation within groupsand smaller genetic distances between groups. From this pattern,researchers have proposed that there is more variation in theWest and that a larger, more genetically diverse, founding populationentered the West than the East. Here, we question this characterizationof South American genetic variation and its interpretation.Our concern arises because others have inferred regional variationfrom the mean variation within local populations without takinginto account the variation among local populations within thesame region. This failure produces a biased view of the actualvariation in the East. In this study, we analyze the mitochondrial DNA sequence betweenpositions 16040 and 16322 of the Cambridge reference sequence.Our sample represents a total of 886 people from 27 indigenouspopulations from South (22), Central (3), and North America(2). The basic unit of our analyses is nucleotide identity bydescent, which is easily modeled and proportional to nucleotidediversity. We use a forward modeling strategy to fit a seriesof nested models to identity by descent within and between allpairs of local populations. This method provides estimates ofidentity by descent at different levels of population hierarchywithout assuming homogeneity within populations, regions, orcontinents. Our main discovery is that Eastern South America harbors moregenetic variation than has been recognized. We find no evidencethat there is increased identity by descent in the East relativeto the total for South America. By contrast, we discovered thatpopulations in the Western region, as a group, harbor more identityby descent than has been previously recognized, despite thefact that average identity by descent within groups is lower.In this light, there is no need to postulate separate foundingpopulations for the East and the West because the variabilityin the East could serve as a source for the Western gene pools.