基于土地利用/覆盖变化的浙江大湾区生态安全评价及多情景模拟分析

土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)在生态系统问题中起着决定性的作用。中国改革开放40多年来，土地资源得到了最大限度的开发利用，经济社会取得了巨大的发展，但也面临着严重的生态安全问题。人类活动导致土地利用的迅速变化已经威胁到生态安全(ES),通过预测土地利用的变化并模拟ES模式，将LUCC和生态安全评价结合起来对区域生态环境评价和保护具有重要作用。以浙江大湾区为研究区域，采用CA-Markov模型预测土地利用/覆盖变化，模拟2030年3种不同情景下的生态安全格局。基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型，对2005年、2010年、2015年和2018年浙江大湾区的生态安全进行了评估，处于一般安全等级及以上面积占比从58.83%先提高至60.02%,后下降至59.42%。同时，通过改变不同土地利用/覆盖变化的转移概率矩阵，设置了惯性发展、过度扩张和生态保护3种情景，结果显示3种情景下生态安全处于一般安全等级及以上面积占比分别为58.61%、57.60%和58.46%。浙江大湾区生态安全的空间分布格局与人口密度、GDP等社会经济数据的空间分布格局相反，平原地区耕地利用率高、生态安全等级较低，多丘陵地区...

Ecological security assessment and multi-scenario simulation analysis of Zhejiang Greater Bay Area based on LUCC

Land use/cover change (LUCC) exerts a decisive impact on ecosystem problems. Over the past 40 years of China''s reform and opening up, the development and exploitation of land resources have been made to the greatest extent, and economy and society have achieved considerable growth; however, it is also facing serious ecological security (ES) problems. The rapid change of land use caused by human activities has posed a menace to the ES. It is significant for the evaluation and protection of the regional ecological environment to combine LUCC and ES evaluation by predicting the change of land use and simulating ES model. As the main platform to promote the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, Zhejiang Greater Bay Area faces the pressure of rapid population growth and resource consumption. How to maintain and improve the integrity of the regional ecosystem is very important for the sustainable development of the region. Zhejiang Greater Bay Area was selected as the study area, ecological security evaluation index system was established based on land use types, CA-Markov model was adopted to predict the land use/cover change and simulate the ES pattern under three different scenarios in 2030. Forest land has always been the main land use type in Zhejiang Greater Bay Area, mainly concentrated in the continuous mountainous and hilly areas in Western and central and southern Zhejiang. Cultivated land is mainly distributed in Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Plain, Ningshao plain and the estuary plain area along the lake, and the proportion of construction land is increasing continuously. The ES of Zhejiang Greater Bay Area in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2018 was evaluated on the basis of the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model. The proportion of areas with general security level or above increased from 58.83% to 60.02%, and then decreased to 59.42%. At the same time, by changing the transfer probability matrix of different land use/cover changes, three scenarios of inertial development, excessive expansion and ecological protection were set up. The results showed that the proportion of areas with ecological security at or above the general security level under the three scenarios were 58.61%, 57.60% and 58.46% respectively. The spatial distribution pattern of ES in Zhejiang Greater Bay Area was opposite to that of socio-economic data such as population density and GDP. The utilization rate of farmland in plain areas was high, while its ES level was low. The development level of ecological resources in hilly areas was low, while the ES level was high. This indicates that the ES level in areas with high urbanization level was relatively low, while the ES level in areas with good ecology was relatively high.