Hydrothermal and thermal time models for the invasive grass, Arundo donax

Controlled laboratory and field experiments were performed to determine the developmental response to temperature and moisture of Arundo donax, a riparian invasive grass and potential bioenergy crop. A logistic function was parameterized and used to predict thermal times to sprouting and the nine-leaf stage. Consistent estimates of the base temperature (T_b) and base water potential (ψ_b) below which development ceases were obtained from various statistical and mathematical analyses. Estimates of T_b and ψ_b were 12.7 ± 1.7 °C and −1.56 ± 0.43 MPa, respectively, for the median fraction of sprouting rhizomes. Median hydrothermal time to sprouting was 124.1 MPa °Cd under laboratory conditions and median thermal times, or degree-day (°Cd), to sprouting and nine-leaf stage was estimated to be 94 and 129 °Cd under field conditions, respectively. A degree-day is defined as one day (24 h) spent one degree above T_b. Results demonstrated that thermal time alone is sufficient to accurately predict time to sprouting under field conditions. Further, there may be a fixed moisture threshold of about 6% volumetric water content above which sprouting rate was constant. This threshold corresponded very closely to the −1.5 MPa for ψ_b that was estimated under laboratory conditions for the soil typically infested by A. donax. This information is crucial for assessing risk of invasive spread for A. donax.