Individual-based modelling of recruitment variability and biomass production of bay anchovy in mid-Chesapeake Bay

Production of bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli is highest in the larval and juvenile stages. The interplay between vital rates, stage durations, prey resources, and anchovy abundance ultimately determines the relative magnitude of recruitment (which in the model varies by about three-fold) and of stage-specific production. Changes in adult seasonal spawning patterns that increase the number of larval survivors result in only a slight increase in overall production due to density-dependent decreases in growth rates of later life stages. Bay anchovy in the mid-Chesapeake Bay may reach a compensatory threshold during late summer-autumn as fish growth is affected by competition for food resources. Density dependence in the population is evident in the relationships between spawner-recruit, size-recruit, and production of larval or juvenile to young-of-the-year life stages. Density-dependent growth acts differentially upon the early life stage that exceeds the compensatory threshold in any given year, due either to environmental variability or population size, or both. This could explain partially the relatively low recruitment variability observed for this anchovy.