气候变化对黄腹角雉潜在栖息地的影响

气候变化直接影响物种赖以生存的栖息地环境条件，进而影响物种的分布、数量和存活率。基于优化后最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测气候变化下黄腹角雉(Tragopan caboti)过去、当前、未来时期的潜在栖息地格局。结果表明，降水量、温度、海拔是栖息地的主要影响因子。当前时期适宜栖息地面积较过去时期下降24.69%;未来2041—2060年间，共享社会经济路径(SSP)3-7.0与SSP5-8.5情景下黄腹角雉适宜栖息地面积较当前时期分别下降55.19%、58.10%。浙江、江西和福建是当前以及未来黄腹角雉核心适宜栖息地，适宜栖息地面积呈现下降的趋势，并往高纬度区域移动。

Effects of climate change on potential suitable habitat of Tragopan caboti

Climate change has direct impact on the environment of habitats where different species live, and thereby influences the distribution, population and survival of the species. In this paper, based on the optimized MaxEnt model, the past, present and future patterns of potential habitats for Tragopan caboti under climate change are predicted. According to the results, precipitation, temperature and altitude are main influencing factors of their habitats. At present, the area of suitable habitats is reduced by 24.69% than the past. In the future in 2041-2060, under such conditions as Shared Socio-economic Pathways 3-7.0 and Shared Socio-economic Pathways5-8.5, the area of suitable habitats for Tragopan caboti will be 55.19% and 58.10% smaller than the present, respectively. Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Fujian are core suitable habitats for Tragopan caboti at present and in the future. The suitable habitats show a declining trend in area and the shift towards higher latitudes.