云南省气候生产潜力的时空变化

利用云南省1961-2017年101个国家级气象站年平均气温、年降水量资料,运用Miami模型、Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了云南省3种气候生产潜力,用Mann-Kendell法进行突变检验,并分析了时空分布特征及未来趋势.结果表明:研究期间,云南平均温度气候生产潜力(Yt)、降水气候生产潜力(Yr)和蒸散气候生产潜力(Ye)值分别为1968、1477、1434 g·m^-2·a^-1,Yt呈波动上升状态,Yr/Yt值显示地区间水热配比差异大,约束性条件也明显不同;气候生产潜力存在突变现象,Yt在2001年开始明显突变,Yr没有突变,Ye在2002-2004年有突变;气候生产潜力及气候倾向性空间分布不均,全省各地年平均Yt、Yr和Ye分别在1030~2465、927~2341和832~1995 g·m^-2·a^-1,3种气候生产潜力均为滇西北和滇东北最低,滇西南和滇南最高,大部分地区Yt、Yr和Ye的气候倾向率分别为增长、减小和增长趋势;8种模拟未来气候变化的方案(仅气温增加1℃、仅降水增加10%、仅气温降低1℃、仅降水减少10%、气温增加1℃且降水减少10%、气温增加1℃且降水增加10%、气温降低1℃且降水增加10%、气温降低1℃且降水减少10%)将导致研究区Ye分别变化6~45、13~77.2、15~67、-87^-17、-74~46、58~96、-54~57、-101^-59 g·m^-2·a^-1.整体上,如果未来气候趋于"暖湿"化,将有利于研究区农作物增产,如果趋于"冷干"化,将不利于农作物生产.

Spatial and temporal variability of climatic potential productivity in Yunnan Province,China.

We used the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation data during 1961 and 2017 of 101 national meteorological stations in Yunnan Province to calculate three climate-induced potential productivity in Yunnan Province by Miami model and the Thornthwaite Memorial model. The abrupt test was carried out by Mann-Kendell method. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and future trends of the three climate-induced potential productivities were analyzed. Results showed that the average values of the temperature potential productivity (Y_t), precipitation potential productivity (Y_r) and evapotranspiration potential productivity (Y_e) during the study period was 1968, 1477 and 1434 g·m^-2·a^-1, respectively. The value of Y_t was rising in Yunnan Province. For the value of Y_r /Y_t, there was a large difference in water-heat ratio among regions, as well as the binding conditions. There was an abrupt change in climate-induced potential productivity, with Y_t began to abrupt change significantly in 2001. There was no abrupt change in Y_r, but Y_e had abrupt change in 2002-2004. The spatial distribution of climate production potential and climate tendency were uneven. The annual average value of Y_t, Y_r and Y_e was 1030-2465, 927-2341 and 832-1995 g·m^-2·a^-1, respectively. The climate-induced potential productivity was the lowest in the northwestern and northeastern Yunnan and the highest in the southwestern and southern Yunnan. Most of the climatic propensity rates of Y_t, Y_r and Y_e showed increase, decrease and increase trends respectively. Eight schemes simulating future climate change (i.e., temperature increased by 1 ℃, precipitation increased by 10%, temperature decreased by 1 ℃, precipitation decreased by 10%, temperature increased by 1 ℃ and precipitation decreased by 10%, temperature increased by 1 ℃ and precipitation increased by 10%, the temperature decrease by 1 ℃ and the precipitation increased by 10%, the temperature decrease by 1 ℃ and precipitation decreased by 10%) would lead to Y_e changes of 6-45, 13-77.2, 15-67, -87 to -17, -74-46, 58-96, -54-57, -101 to -59 g·m^-2·a^-1, respectively. On the whole, if the climate tends to be “warm and wet” in the future, it will be beneficial for crop production. However, if it tends to be “cold and dry”, it will be unfavorable to crop production in the study area.