种养系统可持续发展指数的空间格局及其演变趋势——以山东省为例

农业生产专业化、集约化背景下,种养分离越发严重,畜禽粪便排放与环境之间矛盾日益突出,农业可持续发展面临重大挑战.本研究以山东省为例,基于1999-2015年种养系统投入产出资料,利用能值的方法,定量分析了山东省域及市域种养系统可持续发展指数的空间格局及其演变趋势.结果表明:1999-2015年,山东省种养系统的可持续性减弱.可持续发展指数呈极显著下降趋势,2015年较1999年下降了22.0%;净能值产出率和环境负载率均呈极显著增加趋势,单位经济投入获得的利益显著增加,同时种养生产对环境的压力明显加大,这主要与电力、复合肥、农业机械等工业资源投入量的增加密切相关.山东省各地市种养系统可持续发展水平具有差异.大部分地市种养系统的可持续发展指数较高,而沿海地区(威海、烟台)和工业城市(淄博)则较低.同时,各地市种养系统的可持续发展态势也具有差异.鲁中和鲁南地区可持续性逐年减弱,鲁北地区可持续性逐年增强.以2015年为本底数据进行情景分析,发现种养高度结合(100%粪便有机肥替代化肥)情景的可持续发展指数可达8.4,是种养结合现状(30%粪便有机肥替代化肥)的2.6倍.

Spatial pattern and evolutionary trend of sustainable development index of crop-livestock system: A case study in Shandong Province,China.

The intensification and industrialization of agricultural production leads to more and more serious separation of crop and livestock, which causes serious contradiction between livestock excrement and environment, and major challenges for agricultural sustainable development. Here, we quantitatively investigated the spatial pattern and evolutionary trend of the sustainable development index (ESI) of the crop-livestock system using the emergy analysis and the input/output data in Shandong Province (1999-2015). The results showed that the sustainability of the crop-livestock system in Shandong Province decreased from 1999 to 2015 by 22.0%. The net emergy yield ratio (EYR), environmental load ratio (ELR), and the benefits of unit economic inputs significantly increased. The environmental pressure from the crop and livestock production increased obviously, which was closely related to the increase of industrial resources input including electricity, compound fertilizer, and agricultural machinery. There were differences in the sustainable development level of the crop-livestock system among administrative prefectures in Shandong Province. The ESI level of crop-livestock system in most regions was relatively high, while that in the coastal regions (e.g., Weihai, Yantai) and industrial region (e.g., Zibo) was relatively low. The trends of the sustainable development of crop-livestock system varied in different cities. The sustainability of central and southern Shandong was decreasing, while that of northern Shandong was increasing year by year. In 2015, the ESI of the expected crop-livestock system (100% livestock manure replaced fertilizer) could reach 8.4, which was 2.6 times of that of the current crop-livestock system (30% livestock manure replaced fertilizer).