The AIDS epidemic: profiles of development

As all HIV-infected subjects become virus carriers, the epidemic will not attain a "steady state" until the number of deletions (from death and other factors) equals or outnumbers that of new cases, i.e. each HIV-infected subject transmits the infection to only one subject in the course of his lifespan. A full stop of all spreading of HIV will most likely require worldwide vaccination. By simple mathematical models it is shown that calculation of the number of HIV infected individuals based on the number of AIDS cases is very uncertain. The ratio of HIV infected subjects to AIDS cases is greatly influenced by the length of the incubation period and the case doubling time. Since the growth of the epidemic is exponential, all efforts to control the epidemic should be continuously intensified as single measures will only retard the rate of spread. The effect of saturation/deletion on the number of susceptible individuals is insignificant in this phase of the epidemic, except in small groups at special risk.