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Multiple models and experiments underscore large uncertainty in soil carbon dynamics |
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| Authors: | Benjamin N Sulman Jessica A M Moore Rose Abramoff Colin Averill Stephanie Kivlin Katerina Georgiou Bhavya Sridhar Melannie D Hartman Gangsheng Wang William R Wieder Mark A Bradford Yiqi Luo Melanie A Mayes Eric Morrison William J Riley Alejandro Salazar Joshua P Schimel Jinyun Tang Aimée T Classen |
| Institution: | 1.Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Princeton University,Princeton,USA;2.Sierra Nevada Research Institute,University of California,Merced,USA;3.Department of Natural Resources and the Environment,University of New Hampshire,Durham,USA;4.Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology,University of Tennessee,Knoxville,USA;5.Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division,Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,Berkeley,USA;6.Department of Earth and Environment,Boston University,Boston,USA;7.Department of Earth System Science,Stanford University,Stanford,USA;8.Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology,Cornell University,Ithaca,USA;9.Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory,Colorado State University,Fort Collins,USA;10.Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory,National Center for Atmospheric Research,Boulder,USA;11.Environmental Sciences Division & Climate Change Science Institute,Oak Ridge National Laboratory,Oak Ridge,USA;12.Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Institute for Environmental Genomics,University of Oklahoma,Norman,USA;13.Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research,University of Colorado,Boulder,USA;14.School of Forestry & Environmental Studies,Yale University,New Haven,USA;15.Department of Biological Sciences, Center for Ecosystem Science and Society (ECOSS),Northern Arizona University,Flagstaff,USA;16.Department of Biological Sciences,Purdue University,West Lafayette,USA;17.Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology,University of California, Santa Barbara,Santa Barbara,USA;18.Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources,University of Vermont,Burlington,USA;19.The Gund Institute for Environment,The University of Vermont,Burlington,USA |
| Abstract: | Soils contain more carbon than plants or the atmosphere, and sensitivities of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to changing climate and plant productivity are a major uncertainty in global carbon cycle projections. Despite a consensus that microbial degradation and mineral stabilization processes control SOC cycling, no systematic synthesis of long-term warming and litter addition experiments has been used to test process-based microbe-mineral SOC models. We explored SOC responses to warming and increased carbon inputs using a synthesis of 147 field manipulation experiments and five SOC models with different representations of microbial and mineral processes. Model projections diverged but encompassed a similar range of variability as the experimental results. Experimental measurements were insufficient to eliminate or validate individual model outcomes. While all models projected that CO2 efflux would increase and SOC stocks would decline under warming, nearly one-third of experiments observed decreases in CO2 flux and nearly half of experiments observed increases in SOC stocks under warming. Long-term measurements of C inputs to soil and their changes under warming are needed to reconcile modeled and observed patterns. Measurements separating the responses of mineral-protected and unprotected SOC fractions in manipulation experiments are needed to address key uncertainties in microbial degradation and mineral stabilization mechanisms. Integrating models with experimental design will allow targeting of these uncertainties and help to reconcile divergence among models to produce more confident projections of SOC responses to global changes. |
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