熵权理论在定量评价农业气象综合灾情中的应用

针对气象灾害综合评价中客观存在的模糊性和多因素相互联系及相互制约性,将信息论中的熵值理论引入灾害综合评价,提出利用熵权法对多评价因子赋权的新思路,使得权值的分配有了一定的理论依据,建立了基于熵权的灾害综合评价模型,并用此模型对福建省近25年的农业气象灾害进行定量评价。结果表明:1999年灾情最重,而1984年灾情最轻;进一步分析发现,80年代的灾情较轻,而90年代的灾情较重,且灾情呈现加大趋势.实例验证基于熵权的综合评判法用于农业气象灾害评价是合理可行的,建议加强对福建省防范低温冻害和台风的研究。

Application of entropy weight theory in quantitative assessment of comprehensive agro-meteorological disasters in Fujian Province

Aiming at the uncertainty of the indices in the assessment of agro-meteorological disasters and the ignored interrelationships among the indices,entropy value theory was applied to the comprehensive assessment of agro-meteorological disasters.The weight coefficients of introduced indices were obtained from the avail values of the data reflecting the information entropy,by which,the weight allocation was more reasonable.The method was applied to comprehensively assess the past 25 years' agro-meteorological disasters in Fujian Province,and the results showed that the most serious disaster happened in 1999,while the most trivial one was in 1984.Further analysis indicated that the losses were most severe in the 1990s and the lightest in the 1980s,with the harmfulness tended to increase in next years.It was validated that this method could assess meteorological disasters reasonably and practically.More attentions to the researches should be paid on low temperature disaster and typhoon prevention in Fujian Province.