| 麦田天敌消长演替规律及超长期预测的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王向阳,刘光荣,宋爱颖,王顺建,黄娟. 麦田天敌消长演替规律及超长期预测的研究[J]. 华东昆虫学报, 2003, 12(1): 46-52 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王向阳 刘光荣 宋爱颖 王顺建 黄娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽省萧县农技推广中心,235200 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过聚类分析，在明确麦田天敌消长演变规律的基础上，采用时间序列分析法，建立麦田总体天敌和优势天敌七星瓢虫的超长期预测模型，经过2001年和2002年实际应用，季节水平模型、ARIMA模型的预测效果较好，并用这两种模型对未来三年麦田天敌的消长进行了超长期预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 麦田天敌 消长演替规律 超长期预测 七星瓢虫 时间序列分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-1694-(2001)01-0046-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-09-30 |
The successive regulation and super long-time prediction of natural enemies in wheat fields |
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| WANG Xiang yang,LIU Guang rong,SONG Ai ying,WANG Shun jian,HUANG Juan. The successive regulation and super long-time prediction of natural enemies in wheat fields[J]. Entomological Journal of East China, 2003, 12(1): 46-52 |
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| Authors: | WANG Xiang yang LIU Guang rong SONG Ai ying WANG Shun jian HUANG Juan |
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| Abstract: | The successive regulation of natural enemies in wheat fields was demonstrated through clustering. The super long-time models for predicting the natural enemies and the major enemy Coccinella septempunctata were built up on the base of those researches by use of the time-sequence. Those models were put into use in 2001 and 2002. The testing results showed the models of season-level and ARIMA could match the observing values well. The occurrence of natural enemies in next three years was predicted by the equation of season-level and ARIMA. |
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| Keywords: | natural enemies wheat fields Coccinella septempunctata super long-time prediction time-sequence analysis |
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