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A Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical analysis of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests |
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| Authors: | Stefano Peluso Antonietta Mira Håvard Rue Nicholas John Tierney Claudio Benvenuti Roberto Cianella Maria Luce Caputo Angelo Auricchio |
| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Statistical Sciences, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan, Italy;2. Institute of Computational Science, Università della Svizzera italiana, Lugano, Switzerland Department of Science and High Technology, Università degli Studi dell'Insubria, Como, Italy;3. King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia;4. Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia;5. Fondazione Ticino Cuore, Breganzona, Switzerland;6. FCTSA Federazione Cantonale Ticinese Servizi Autoambulanze, Switzerland;7. Fondazione Cardiocentro Ticino, Division of Cardiology, Lugano, Switzerland Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy;8. Fondazione Ticino Cuore, Breganzona, Switzerland Fondazione Cardiocentro Ticino, Division of Cardiology, Lugano, Switzerland Center for Computational Medicine in Cardiology, Università della Svizzera italiana, Lugano, Switzerland |
| Abstract: | We propose a Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical model for predicting out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs). Risk maps for Ticino, adjusted for demographic covariates, are built for explaining and forecasting the spatial distribution of OHCAs and their temporal dynamics. The occurrence intensity of the OHCA event in each area of interest, and the cardiac risk-based clustering of municipalities are efficiently estimated, through a statistical model that decomposes OHCA intensity into overall intensity, demographic fixed effects, spatially structured and unstructured random effects, time polynomial dependence, and spatiotemporal random effect. In the studied geography, time evolution and dependence on demographic features are robust over different categories of OHCAs, but with variability in their spatial and spatiotemporal structure. Two main OHCA incidence-based clusters of municipalities are identified. |
| Keywords: | cardiac risk map integrated nested Laplace approximation temporal and spatial heterogeneity |