Biology ofhyphantria cunea drury (lepidoptera : Arctiidae) in Japan. IX. population dynamics

Fluctuations in population density of Hyphantria cunea in Japan are characterized by a gradation-like pattern. Analysis of the life table data taken from two stations during eight successive generations showed that (1) mortality during egg and early larval stages was density-independent, (2) mortality during later larval stages was inversely density-dependent, and (3) mortality during prepupal and pupal stages was density-independent. Thus the overall mortality process from egg to adults eclosion was inversely density-dependent. The inverse density-dependence in mortality process during later larval instars was mainly attributed to the ‘escape’ (VOÛTE, 1946) of H. cunea populations from the predation pressure of polyphagous predators such as birds and Politses wasps. This inverse density-dependence was considered to be a cause of gradation-like fluctuation. Field collection of egg-masses showed that the mean number of eggs per egg-mass, which was believed to be a good representation of mean fecundity, varied from 425 to 1050 during 4 years. Density-dependent reduction in the mean number of eggs per egg-mass was demonstrated, and this reduction was a factor regulating the population density. Assuming fixed sex ratio and survival rate of adults, a preliminary population model was constructed. The number of eggs laid in the survey station could be predicted well by the model based on the number of eggs laid in the previous generation, in 9 out of 13 cases. An attempt to apply a model of the same type to mimic the fluctuation of abundance (peak number of larval colonies per tree) on road-side trees suggested another density-dependent process, that is, insecticide application by man. Discussion was also presented on the causes responsible for the turn of population trend from decreasing to increasing in the 1st generation of 1968.