Recruitment rates exhibit high elasticity and high temporal variation in populations of a short-lived perennial herb

Empirical studies for different life histories have shown an inverse relationship between elasticity (i.e. the proportional contribution to population growth rate) and temporal variation in vital rates. It is accepted that this relationship indicates the effect of selective pressures in reducing variation in those life‐history traits with a major impact on fitness. In this paper, we sought to determine whether changes in environmental conditions affect the relationship between elasticity of vital rates and their temporal variation, and whether vital rates with simultaneously large elasticity and temporal variation might represent a characteristic life‐history strategy. We used demographic data on 13 populations of the short‐lived Hypericum cumulicola over 5–6 years, in three time‐since‐fire classes. For each population of each time‐since‐fire, we computed the mean matrix over years and its respective elasticity matrix, and the coefficients of variation in matrix entries over study years as an estimate of temporal variability. We found that mean elasticity negatively significantly correlated with temporal variation in vital rates in populations (overall eight out of 13) included in each time‐since‐fire. However, seedling recruitment exhibited both high elasticity and high temporal variation in almost all study populations. These results indicated that (1) the general relationship between elasticity and temporal variation in vital rates was not modified by environmental changes due to time‐since‐fire, and (2) high elasticity and high temporal variation in seedling recruitment in H. cumulicola is a particular trait of the species' life history. After seed survival in the soil seed bank, seedling recruitment represents the most important life‐history trait influencing H. cumulicola population growth rate (and fitness). The high temporal variability in seedling recruitment suggests that this trait is determined by environmental cues, leading to an increase in population size and subsequent replenishment of the seed bank in favorable years.