Extinction times for closed epidemics: the effects of host spatial structure |
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| Authors: | Andrew W Park Simon Gubbins Christopher A Gilligan |
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| Institution: | Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK;Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, U.K. and Churchill College, Cambridge CB3 0DS, UK;Present address: Epidemiology Department, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK |
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| Abstract: | Although of practical importance, the relationship between the duration of an epidemic and host spatial structure is poorly understood. Here we use a stochastic metapopulation model for the transmission of infection in a spatially structured host population. There are three qualitatively different regimes for the extinction time, which depend on patch population size, the within‐patch basic reproductive number and the strength of coupling between patches. In the first regime, the extinction time for the metapopulation (i.e. from all patches) is approximately equal to the extinction time for a single patch. In the second regime, the metapopulation extinction time is maximal but also highly variable. In the third regime, the extinction time for the metapopulation (TE) is given by TE = a + bn1/2 where a is the local extinction time (i.e. from last patch), b is the transit time (i.e. the time taken for infection to spread from one patch to another) and n is the total number of patches. |
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| Keywords: | Epidemiology metapopulation persistence stochastic model |
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