| Abstract: | Abstract. In order to forecast consequences of climatic changes for littoral algae in coastal ecosystems, the effects of temperature increase on spring bloom dynamics of epilithic diatom communities were studied in two ways: (1) Communities were compared from sites receiving different amounts of cooling water discharge from a nuclear power plant. (2) Communities from the exceptionally warm spring of 1989 were compared with those from the same sites in the preceding normal years. The studies were carried out in and around the Forsmark Biotest Basin, an artificial waterbody that receives brackish cooling water from the Forsmark nuclear power plant on the Swedish east coast. Species composition and biomass data from 200 epilithic diatom samples taken in the period January-May from 1983 to 1989 were analysed. Multiple regression analysis was used to show the responses of diatom cover, community diversity and abundances of individual taxa to water temperature and other environmental factors. Constrained ordination (CCA) was used to display the relationship of overall community composition to environment. Increased water temperature resulted in higher biomass through a chain of ecological effects. Strong reduction of ice cover was crucial in this chain, resulting in reduced loss of diatom cells by reduced abrading and higher primary production by higher availability of light, nutrients and substrate. The conclusion is that large blooms of fast-growing epilithic diatoms in large colonies can occupy the niche that emerges when the ice-free season is prolonged in the northern Baltic Sea and areas similar in salinity and climatic conditions. Dramatic species shifts may only be expected if the winter ice cover is totally absent. |
