Temporal trends in net and crude probability of death from cancer and other causes in the Australian population, 1984–2013 |
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| Institution: | 1. Cancer Research Centre, Cancer Council Queensland, Brisbane, Australia;2. School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Brisbane QLD 4059, Australia;3. Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia;4. Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia;5. Menzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, Gold Coast Campus, Parklands Drive, Southport QLD 4222, Australia;6. School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Gardens Point, Brisbane QLD 4000, Australia;1. Center for Clinical Research and Prevention, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospital, The Capital Region, Nordre Fasanvej 57, 2000, Frederiksberg, Denmark;2. Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Bethesda, MD, 20892-9778, USA;3. Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research, Section of Metabolic Genetics, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 3B, 2200, Copenhagen, Denmark;1. Programa de Hematologia-Oncologia Pediátrica - PHOP, Instituto Nacional de Câncer José Alencar Gomes da Silva, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;2. Divisão de Vigilância e Análise de Situação, Coordenação de Prevenção e Vigilância, Instituto Nacional de Câncer José Alencar Gomes da Silva, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;3. Secretaria Estadual de Saúde da Paraíba, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de João Pessoa, Brazil;4. Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Recife, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Recife, Brazil;5. Secretaria de Saúde do Estado do Ceará, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Fortaleza, Brazil;6. Secretaria Estadual de Saúde de Minas Gerais, Superintendência de Epidemiologia, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Belo Horizonte, Brazil;7. Hospital de Câncer de Barretos, Fundação Pio XII, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Barretos, Brazil;8. Coordenação Estadual de Atenção Oncológica, Secretaria Estadual de Saúde do Pará, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Belém, Brazil;9. Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Curitiba, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Curitiba, Brazil;10. Secretaria Estadual de Saúde, Hospital Gov. João Alves Filho, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Aracaju, Brazil;11. Fundação Centro de Controle de Oncologia, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Manaus, Brazil;12. Associação de Combate ao Câncer de Goiás, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Goiânia, Brazil;13. Secretaria Estadual de Saúde do Espírito Santo, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Espírito Santo, Brazil;14. Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de São Paulo, Brazil;15. Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Porto Alegre, Brazil;p. Secretaria de Estado de Saúde do Mato Grosso, Superintendência de Vigilância em Saúde, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Cuiabá, Brazil;q. Fundação Hospital Amaral Carvalho, Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Jahu, Brazil;1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, China;2. Department of Medical Oncology, Jiangsu Cancer Hospital & Jiangsu Institute of Cancer Research & Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing China;3. State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;4. State Key Laboratory of Bioelectronics, Southeast University, Nanjing, China;1. Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Calle Juan de Quesada 30, 35001 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain;2. Dermatology Department, Hospital Universitario de Gran Canaria Doctor Negrín, Barranco de la Ballena s/n, 35010 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain;3. Research Unit, Hospital Universitario de Gran Canaria Doctor Negrín, Barranco de la Ballena s/n, 35010 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain;1. Department of Surgery, Division of Urology, Center for Integrated Research on Cancer and Lifestyle, Samuel Oschin Comprehensive Cancer Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA;2. Duke Cancer Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA;3. Surgery Section, Durham VA Health Care System, Durham, NC, USA;4. Department of Radiation Oncology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA;5. Department of Biomedical Sciences, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA;6. Institute for Translational Epidemiology, and Tisch Cancer Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA;7. Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, USA;1. Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer Center, 5-1-1 Tsukiji, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan;2. Division of Cancer Statistics Integration, Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center, 5-1-1 Tsukiji, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan;3. Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan |
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| Abstract: | BackgroundWhile net probabilities of death in the relative survival framework ignore competing causes of death, crude probabilities allow estimation of the real risk of cancer deaths. This study quantifies temporal trends in net and crude probabilities of death.MethodsAustralian population-based cohort of 2,015,903 people aged 15-89 years, diagnosed with a single primary invasive cancer from 1984 to 2013 with mortality follow-up to 31 December 2014. Survival was analyzed with the cohort method. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate both probability measures by diagnosis year for all cancers and selected leading sites.ResultsFor each site, excess mortality rates reduced over time, especially for prostate cancer. While both the 10-year net and crude probability of cancer deaths decreased over time, specific patterns varied. For example, the crude probability of lung cancer deaths for males aged 50 years decreased from 0.90 (1984) to 0.79 (2013); whereas the corresponding probabilities for kidney cancer were 0.64 and 0.18 respectively. Patterns for crude probabilities of competing deaths were relatively constant. Although for younger patients, both net and crude measures were similar, crude probability of competing deaths increased with age, hence for older ages net and crude measures were different except for lung and pancreas cancers.ConclusionsThe observed reductions in probabilities of death over three decades for Australian cancer patients are encouraging. However, this study also highlights the ongoing mortality burden following a cancer diagnosis, and the need for continuing efforts to improve cancer prevention, diagnosis and treatment. |
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| Keywords: | Cancer Prognosis Competing causes Crude probability Australia Temporal trends |
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