The contribution of patch topology and demographic parameters to population viability analysis predictions: the case of the European tree frog |
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Authors: | Jérôme Pellet Gérard Maze Nicolas Perrin |
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Affiliation: | (1) Department of Ecology and Evolution, Laboratory for Conservation Biology, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;(2) Department of Biological Sciences, Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA;(3) Laboratory of Algorithmic Mathematics, Mathematics Section, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland |
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Abstract: | Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data. |
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Keywords: | Population viability analyses RAMAS Stochastic patch occupancy models Extinction Colonization Dispersal distance Hyla arborea Patch occupancy Population size Switzerland |
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