Alternative models for species replacement of pelagic fishes

It is well known that the stock abundance of a pelagic fish usually fluctuates and a species of pelagic fish which was dominant in abundance is often taken over by another species. Several alternative models for species replacement among pelagic fishes are presented and analyzed: (A) environmental fluctuation, (B) strong density-dependent reproduction rate, (C) a two-species system with phase variation (density-dependent change of life history traits), (D) a two-species competition system with environmental fluctuation, (E) cyclic advantage relationship among three competitive species, and (F) a two-prey, one-predator system. Different model requires different number of species for the occurrence of species replacement. Three criteria to test each hypothesis from qualitative properties of species replacement are proposed. Possible management policies to decrease the amplitude of stock fluctuations are discussed. As a result, if the catching effort to mackerels which is rare now is large, or if the catching effort to the sardine is still large when it begins to decline in stock abundance, fisheries may be strong destabilizing effect on the stock abundance.