| 应用ARIMA模型预测宝安区某街道其它感染性腹泻发病率的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 何晓燕,李苑,黄志平,符绩文,陈山,刘碧清.应用ARIMA模型预测宝安区某街道其它感染性腹泻发病率的探讨[J].现代生物医学进展,2011,11(16):3138-3142. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何晓燕 李苑 黄志平 符绩文 陈山 刘碧清 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 深圳市宝安区观澜人民医院 广东深圳 518110
2. 深圳市宝安区疾病预防控制中心 广东深圳 518101 |
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| 基金项目： | 宝安区科技局2009年基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的:探讨应用ARIMA模型预测宝安区某街道其它感染性腹泻发病率的可行性。方法:应用SPSSl3.0软件对2005年～2009年宝安区某街道其它感染性腹泻逐月发病率进行ARIMA模型建模拟合,用所得到的模型对2010年各月发病率进行预测,并评价其预测效果。结果:宝安区桌街道其它感染性腹泻发病率每年11月为发病高峰,ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)12模型是其拟合的最佳模型,其预测结果和实际值绝对误差的绝对值最大为930.47,最小为1.96,平均值214.83,平均相对误差百分比39.04%。结论:模型虽然起到一定的预测效果,但预测精度仍存在误差,可通过积累新的周期数据对ARIMA模型进行修正和重新拟合,也可尝试新的预测方法或其他模型,才能加强和保证预测的精度。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 感染性腹泻 发病率 预测 |
Exploration of the Incidences of Other Infectious Diarrheas at a Township, Bao'an District Predicted by ARIMA Model |
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| HH Xiao-yan,LI Yuan,HUANG Zhi-ping,FU Ji-wen,CHEN Shan,LIU Bi-qing.Exploration of the Incidences of Other Infectious Diarrheas at a Township, Bao'an District Predicted by ARIMA Model[J].Progress in Modern Biomedicine,2011,11(16):3138-3142. |
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| Authors: | HH Xiao-yan LI Yuan HUANG Zhi-ping FU Ji-wen CHEN Shan LIU Bi-qing |
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| Institution: | 1 (1.Guanglan people’s hospital of Bao’an district of Shenzhen city,Shenzhen 518110; 2.Bao’an center for disease prevention and control of Shenzhen city,Shenzhen 518101) |
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| Abstract: | Objective:To probe the feasibility of the incidences of other infectious diarrheas at a township,Bao'an district predicted by ARIMA model.Methods:Using SPSS 13.0 to build the ARIMA model and to fit the month-by-month incidences of other infectious diarrheas from 2005 to 2009 at a township,Bao'an district,to predict the incidences from January to December,2010,and to evaluate the prediction effects.Results:November is the incidence peak of other infectious diarrheas at a township,Bao'an district.The best fit... |
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| Keywords: | Model of autoregressive integrated moving average Infectious diarrhea Incidence Prediction |
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