Changes in the seasonality of mortality in Germany from 1946 to 1995: the role of temperature |
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Authors: | A Lerchl |
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Institution: | (1) Institute of Reproductive Medicine of the University, Domagkstrasse 11, D-48129 Münster, Germany, DE |
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Abstract: | Based on records from the Federal Bureau for Statistics of Germany, the seasonality of mortality was investigated for the
period 1946–1995. Lowest mortality rates were found during summer (August or September) while highest values were found in
winter (January through March). Non-linear regression of all monthly mortality data with the average monthly temperatures
in Germany revealed a significant negative relationship (r=–0.739; n=600; P<0.0001). The fact that the differences between the long-range monthly temperatures and the individual monthly temperatures
also showed a distinct relationship to the mortality rates speaks against a mere coincidence of both parameters. The amplitude
of this seasonal rhythm declined steadily within the observation period. It is concluded that low temperatures cause an increase
in mortality rates and that this effect has become less important during recent decades due to the increased use of central
heating and because of improvements in the public health system.
Received: 27 April 1998 / Revised: 10 July 1998 / Accepted: 9 September 1998 |
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Keywords: | Mortality Human Seasonality Secular trend Temperature |
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