Using species distribution modeling to set management priorities for mammals in northern Thailand

Rapid deforestation has occurred in northern Thailand and is expected to continue. Thus, identification and protection of sufficient amounts of the highest quality habitat is urgent. Wildlife occurrence data were gathered along wildlife trails and patrolling routes in protected areas and forest patches outside of protected areas. Geographic Information Systems, bio-physical and anthropogenic variables were used to generate suitable habitats for 17 mammal species using maximum entropy theory (MAXENT). Suitable habitats for all species were aggregated, and used to set priorities for wildlife conservation in northern Thailand. In addition, predicted deforestation was overlaid on moderate and high priority areas to determine future wildlife threats and aid decision-making concerning which areas to protect. The results revealed that the total extent of suitable habitats for the studied species covers approximately 37% of the region. Nearly 70% of the total habitat for endangered and vulnerable species is predicted in large and contiguous protected areas. Threatened areas with high biodiversity encompass approximately 1.9% of the region, and 66% of this figure is predicted to occur in existing protected areas. Based on the model outcomes, we recommend reducing human pressures, enhancing the density of prey species and conservation outside protected areas, as well as increasing connectivity of suitable habitats among protected areas that are too small to maintain viable populations in isolation.