气候变暖对中国西北地区农作物种植的影响

采用对农作物生长有指标意义的≥10℃积温和<0℃负积温与农作物适宜种植面积、生长发育速度及产量进行对比统计分析研究,指出气候变暖对中国西北地区农作物种植结构发生了较大改变,冬小麦种植区西伸北扩,棉花面积迅速扩大,多熟制向北和高海拔地区推移.农作物生长发育速度发生了明显变化,春播作物提早播种,喜温作物生育期延长,越冬作物推迟播种,生育期缩短.棉花气候产量明显增加.

The impact of climate warming on crop planting and production in northwestern China

One major challenge in agro-meteorological research is to accurately predict the impacts of global climate warming on future agricultural production. Towards this effort, the effects of climate warming over the past decades need to be assessed. In this study, we analyzed the effects of the climate warming on crop planting, structure and yield in five Northwestern provinces of China with a focus on Gansu utilizing accumulated temperature (≥10℃, AT), accumulated negative temperature (<0℃, ANT) and crop data collected from 1981 to 2003. The analysis led to the following conclusions: (1). Climate warming is the main driving force for the expansion of winter wheat toward North and West, for the rapid increase in cotton planting acreage, and for the expansion of annually multi-crops areas towards north and higher altitude. (2). Climate warming is the direct cause for early seeding of spring crops, and prolonged growth duration for thermophilic crops and shortened duration for overwinter crops. (3). Climate warming is largely attributable to the dramatic increase of cotton yield.