农业害虫发生动态的Fuzzy优选识别模式及其应用

本文对山东省曲阜市１９８２－１９９４年二代棉铃虫发生动态的虫情与相应年份的气象资料进行了数量分析，应用Ｆｕｚｚｙ优选识别原理，建立了二代棉铃虫发生动态的Ｆｕｚｚｙ优选识别模式·对历史资料进行回代验证，其历史拟合率为 １００％．书 １９９５，１９９６ 两年的观测数据资料作为独立样本进行试报，预测结果与实际一致．本研究为农业害虫发生动态的预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法．

A Model of Fuzzy Optimal Identification for Forecasting the Occurrence Dynamics of Agricultural Pests and its Application

Fuzzy optimal identification for forecasting tile population dynamics of agricultural pests was analysed. After the historical pest data observed by the occurrence dynamics of the second generation of Helicoverpa armigera (Hhbner) in Qufu, Shandong province during the years of 1982-1994 were processed, a predictive model of Fuzzy optimal identification was set up. The coincidence rate of the model forecasting with historical data was 100% in test. The forecasted results in 1995 and 1996 are completely coincident with the actual occurrence of pests. This new method may be also be tried for forecasting of other the population dynamics of pests.