Physical and chemical properties determine zebra mussel invasion success in lakes

To address the question whether the abundance of an invasive species can be explained by physical and chemical properties of the invaded ecosystems, we gathered density data of invasive zebra mussels and the physical and chemical data of ecosystems they invaded. We assembled published data from 55 European and 13 North American lakes and developed a model for zebra mussel density using a generalized additive model (GAM) approach. Our model revealed that the joint effect of surface area, total phosphorus and calcium concentrations explained 62% of the variation in Dreissena density. Our study indicates that large and less productive North American lakes can support larger local populations of zebra mussels. Our results suggest that the proliferation of an exotic species in an area can partially be explained by physical and chemical properties of the recipient environment.