The dynamics of the N/P ratio and stratification in a large nitrogen-limited estuary as a result of upwelling: a tendency for offshore Nodularia blooms

The effect of upwelling on the preconditions for noxious cyanobacterial blooms in a nitrogen-limited estuary is studied with Nodularia blooms in the Gulf of Finland especially in mind. An idealised physical–chemical model is derived and integrated. The physical development in the model agrees with a classical picture of upwelling for the scales of interest. The chemical component indicates a transient minimum of dissolved inorganic nitrogen to phosphorus ratio in the middle of the gulf, coinciding with the stratification maximum resulting from physical dynamics. A general tendency for offshore cyanobacterial blooms in similar physical and biological conditions is deduced from these results.