中原城市群“三生”空间模拟及生态效应评估——基于未来土地利用模拟模型和共享社会经济路径情景

黄河流域高质量发展背景下,加强该流域典型城市群"三生"空间(PLES)时空演变和生态效应具有重要现实意义。以中原城市群为例,基于2010年、2015年和2020年的土地利用数据,耦合未来土地利用变化情景模拟模型(FLUS)、共享社会经济路径(SSPs)和生态环境效应模型,分析了2025-2100年五种SSPs情景下中原城市群"三生"空间的时空演变特征,以及2035年不同情景下的生态环境效应。结果表明:(1)从2025年到2100年,除SSP4情景外,其余4种情景均表现为生产空间面积持续缩减、生活空间面积明显扩张、生态空间面积略有起伏总体缩减。(2) 5种SSPs情景下,"三生"空间的空间分布格局相对一致。城镇生活用地较为聚集呈片状分布,农村生活用地呈点状零散分布。农业生产用地较大,分布均匀。林地和牧草生态用地主要分布在西部和南部,水域生态用地呈东西向带状分布在中原城市群中北部。(3)2035年,研究区生态环境质量空间分布不均衡,呈现"西南高-中部低"特征。中间发展情景(SSP2),生态环境质量略高于其他情景。研究结果对中原城市群的国土空间规划和生态文明建设具有一定的理论和实践价值。

Simulating spatio-temporal pattern of production-living-ecological space and evaluating eco-environmental effects in Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration based on FLUS model and shared socioeconomic pathways

In the context of the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, it is important to simulate spatio-temporal pattern of production-living-ecological space and analysis of eco-environmental effects of the typical urban agglomerations in the Basin. This study took the Zhongyuan urban agglomeration as an example. Based on land use data for 2010, 2015 and 2020, coupled with the future land use simulation (FLUS), the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the eco-environmental effect model, we simulated the spatio-temporal pattern of production-living-ecological space in Zhongyuan urban agglomeration under five SSPs scenarios from 2025 to 2100, and analyzed the eco-environmental effects of different scenarios in 2035. The results show that: (1) from 2025 to 2100, except for SSP4 scenario, the area of production space will continue to shrink, the area of living space will expand significantly, and the area of ecological space decreases slightly under SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 scenarios. (2) Under the five SSPs scenarios, the spatial distribution pattern of PLES is relatively consistent. The urban living land presents the clustered distribution pattern, while the rural living land is relatively scattered in a dotted pattern. The agricultural productive land is large and evenly distributed. The woodland and pasture ecological land are mainly distributed in the west and south, and the water ecological land is distributed in an east-west strip in the middle and north of the Central Plains urban agglomeration. (3) In 2035, the spatial distribution of eco-environmental quality in the study area will be uneven, showing the characteristics of high in the southwest and low in the center. The ecological quality is higher in intermediate development scenario (SSP2) than in other scenarios. The results of the study will provide helpful reference for territorially spatial planning and ecological civilization construction in the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration.