Optimal age of maturity in fluctuating environments under r‐ and K‐selection

Optimality models for evolution of life histories have shown that increased environmental stochasticity promotes early age of maturity. Here we argue that if r‐selection for early maturation implies a tradeoff making those phenotypes more sensitive to a change in population size than phenotypes maturing at older ages, K‐selection can favor delayed onset of maturation. We analyze a general stochastic Leslie‐matrix model with a simplified density regulation affecting all survivals equally through a function of the population vector, often called the ‘critical age class’. We show that the outcome of such an age‐dependent r‐ and K‐selection is that the expected value of the ‘critical age class’ is maximized by evolution, a strategy strongly influenced by the magnitude of the environmental stochasticity. We also demonstrate that evolution caused by such density‐dependent selection influences the population dynamics, showing a possible reciprocal effect between ecology and evolution in age‐structured populations. This modeling approach reveals that changes in population size affecting the fitness of phenotypes with different age of maturity may be an important selective agent for variation in onset of reproduction in fluctuating environments. This provides a testable hypothesis for how patterns in the population dynamics should affect life history variation.