Computer simultion of the reef zonation at Discovery Bay,Jamaica: Hurricane disruption and long-term physical oceanographic controls

A computer model (COREEF) designed to simulate the growth of Caribbean coral reefs has been tested for its ability to reconstruct the storm-induced and the established zonation patterns on the West Reef at Discovery Bay, Jamaica. Hindcast waves for nine positions of Hurricane Allen were routed across the reef, and the disruptions to the coralgal and sediment zones were calculated for each position. The predicted maximum and intermediate stage damages closely matched the actual destruction produced by this and other smaller storms. Despite their severity, hurricanes probably have minimal long-term effect on the established zonation of this reef, because their return period is generally less than the recovery period of the reef. Additional simulation experiments indicate that a composite of the wave conditions at Discovery Bay maintain the established reef zonation and that winter storm conditions produce the maximum bottom velocities that the coralgal framework can withstand without disruption.