Dependency effects in multi-locus match probabilities

For finite populations, differences in individual histories can cause between-locus allelic dependencies even for unlinked loci. The main motivation for this study is to quantify the effect of such dependencies on genotypic match probabilities. We compare the two-locus match probability, the probability that two individuals (four gametes) chosen at random will have the same genotype at both loci, with the probability computed as the product of the one-locus match probabilities. It is demonstrated that the product rule probability always underestimates the two-locus match probability. For highly mutable minisatellite loci, these probabilities can differ by an order of magnitude or more. A simplified three-locus problem is explored, providing evidence that the degree of under-estimation worsens for more loci.