The predictability of biological populations and communities: an example from the meiobenthos

The predictability of temporal changes was analysed in the population density of three meiobenthic copepod species, and for three parameters characterizing this community. For Paronychocamptus nanus and Tachidius discipes a large part of the variation in time scales longer than 1 year is explainable as cyclic factors. In P. nanus clear cyles with periods of 2 years and 1.5 years were found. These cyclic factors can be extrapolated for prediction. In Canuella perplexa almost all the variation was due to unpredictable long-term drift. Community parameters are generally better predicted than population densities. In our data set total density of the copepods was the best parameter to monitor. Monitoring does not necessitate a strict sampling scheme; irregular quarterly sampling from the P. nanus series showed that the essential features of the series were still discernible.