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Modeling the Spatial Spread of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt
Authors:Daozhou Gao  Chris Cosner  Robert Stephen Cantrell  John C Beier  Shigui Ruan
Institution:1. Francis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, University of California, Box 0412, San Francisco, CA, 94143, USA
2. Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, 33124, USA
3. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, 33136, USA
Abstract:Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that harms both human health and livestock production. It is believed that RVF in Egypt has been repeatedly introduced by the importation of infected animals from Sudan. In this paper, we propose a three-patch model for the process by which animals enter Egypt from Sudan, are moved up the Nile, and then consumed at population centers. The basic reproduction number for each patch is introduced and then the threshold dynamics of the model are established. We simulate an interesting scenario showing a possible explanation of the observed phenomenon of the geographic spread of RVF in Egypt.
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