Advances in first bloom dates and increased occurrences of yearly second blooms in eastern China since the 1960s: further phenological evidence of climate warming |
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Authors: | Quansheng Ge Junhu Dai Jingyun Zheng Jie Bai Shuying Zhong Huanjiong Wang Wei-Chyung Wang |
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Institution: | (1) Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A 11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, People’s Republic of China;(2) Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12203, USA; |
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Abstract: | Confirming the results of previous regional studies on changes in first bloom dates (FBD) in China, this study provides evidence
that complements conclusions drawn from studies of phenological changes in other dynamic climate systems in the Northern Hemisphere.
Furthermore, increased occurrences of yearly second blooms (YSB) further reinforce results derived from other studies indicating
a recent trend of generalized climate warming across China. Additionally, ascertaining changes in FBD and YSB against a recent
background not only provides a hitherto poorly formulated autumnal equivalent to the well-studied shifts in FBD, but also
formulates both spring and autumn flowering changes in recent years. Data in this study are derived from observations made
from 1963 to 2006 by the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON)—a nationwide system of monitoring stations that has
made observations of over 173 species from across China since 1963. At each site, the mean value of each species’ annual deviation
and spring mean surface temperatures were calculated. For each species, years and locations were also recorded for species
in which second blooms (YSB) occurred. Of the 46 FBD samples, 31 showed advances from the mean, blooming earlier over the
course of the study period. Notably, although only 8 of the 46 FBD samples showed significance levels of 0.1 or better, the
average FBD did advance by 5.3 days. After the 1980s, the frequency of YSB occurrence remained steady, declining a little
from the peak in the 1980s, but still exhibiting occurrences far more than were observed earlier. The data from this study
clearly indicate that both the phenological advance of FBD in spring and the increased occurrence of YSB are consistent with
climate warming. |
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