Nitrogen deposition and greenhouse gas emissions from grasslands: uncertainties and future directions

Increases in atmospheric nitrogen deposition (N_dep) can strongly affect the greenhouse gas (GHG; CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) sink capacity of grasslands as well as other terrestrial ecosystems. Robust predictions of the net GHG sink strength of grasslands depend on how experimental N loads compare to projected N_dep rates, and how accurately the relationship between GHG fluxes and N_dep is characterized. A literature review revealed that the vast majority of experimental N loads were higher than levels these ecosystems are predicted to experience in the future. Using a process‐based biogeochemical model, we predicted that low levels of N_dep either enhanced or reduced the net GHG sink strength of most grasslands, but as experimental N loads continued to increase, grasslands transitioned to a N saturation‐decline stage, where the sensitivity of GHG exchange to further increases in N_dep declined. Most published studies represented treatments well into the N saturation‐decline stage. Our model results predict that the responses of GHG fluxes to N are highly nonlinear and that the N saturation thresholds for GHGs varied greatly among grasslands and with fire management. We predict that during the 21st century some grasslands will be in the N limitation stage where others will transition into the N saturation‐decline stage. The linear relationship between GHG sink strength and N load assumed by most studies can overestimate or underestimate predictions of the net GHG sink strength of grasslands depending on their N baseline status. The next generation of global change experiments should be designed at multiple N loads consistent with future N_dep rates to improve our empirical understanding and predictive ability.