Assessment of the methane mitigation potentials of alternative water regimes in rice fields using a process‐based biogeochemistry model

Rice production is a substantial source of atmospheric CH₄, which is second only to CO₂ as a contributor to global warming. Since CH₄ is produced in anaerobic soil environments, water management is expected to be a practical measure to mitigate CH₄ emissions. In this study, we used a process‐based biogeochemistry model (DNDC‐Rice) to assess the CH₄ mitigation potentials of alternative water regimes (AWR) for rice fields at a regional scale. Before regional application, we tested DNDC‐Rice using site‐scale data from three rice fields in Japan with different water regimes. The observed CH₄ emissions were reduced by drainage of the fields, but were enhanced by organic amendments. DNDC‐Rice gave acceptable predictions of variation in daily CH₄ fluxes and seasonal CH₄ emissions due to changes in the water regime. For regional application, we constructed a GIS database at a 1 × 1 km mesh scale that contained data on rice field area, soil properties, daily weather, and farming management of each cell in the mesh, covering 3.2% of the rice fields in Japan's Hokkaido region. We ran DNDC‐Rice to simulate CH₄ emissions under five simulated water regimes: the conventional water regime and four AWR scenarios with gradually increasing drainage. We found that AWR can reduce CH₄ emission by up to 41% compared with the emission under conventional water regime. Including the changes in CO₂ and nitrous oxide emissions, potential mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) was 2.6 Mg CO₂ Eq. ha^?1 yr^?1. If this estimate is expanded to Japan's total rice fields, expected GHG mitigation is 4.3 Tg CO₂ Eq. yr^?1, which accounts for 0.32% of total GHG emissions from Japan. For a reliable national‐scale assessment, however, databases on soil, weather, and farming management must be constructed at a national scale, as these factors are widely variable between regions in Japan.