Population genetic structure of the toad Bufo woodhousii: an empirical assessment of the effects of haplotype extinction on nested cladistic analysis

Nested cladistic analysis (NCA) is increasingly being used to infer historical population-level processes, including population fragmentation, range expansion and long-distance colonization. However, the effects on interpretation of NCA inferences of stochastic extinction of haplotypes due to genetic drift (lineage sorting), or of haplotype loss via localized biotic or climatic influences, have not been thoroughly explored. We provide empirical evidence suggesting that NCA may misinterpret population history when haplotypes or haplotype groups from one clade are replaced by those of another clade. We do so by using NCA to analyse mitochondrial sequences from the toad Bufo woodhousii from 45 locations spanning the Great Plains and southwestern USA. Portions of this region were glaciated and/or desertified in the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, and hence uninhabitable for plains-dwelling organisms. Although NCA inferences of isolation-by-distance and gradual range expansion in B. woodhousii are compatible with expectations based on climatic data and toad biology, NCA also detected several instances of long-distance movement. Such movement seems unlikely, given the low vagility of this species. We conclude that inferences of long-distance colonization likely result from extinction of haplotypes in intervening areas. We suggest using additional methods to look for congruent inferences, and amending the NCA inference key, to help avoid misinterpretations resulting from haplotype extinction.