SWAT模型在气候变化对水资源影响研究中的应用——以河南省中部农业区为例

为了研究气候变化对水资源的影响,应用具有物理基础的SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型,针对河南中部农业区(淮河上游沙河周口水文站上游区域)的特点,构建了该区域气候变化影响水资源(径流)评估模型。通过加载1∶4000000电子河系数据,消除了SWAT在平原区从1∶250000 DEM自动提取河系的误差;在对模型参数敏感性分析的基础上,将1999—2002年作为校准期,2003—2006年作为验证期,对模型的参数进行了校准和验证,模型校准期Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数Ens=0.96,r2=0.95,验证期Ens=0.81,r2=0.87,表明模型应用于该区域的月径流模拟精度较高。将1966—2007年的气象资料应用于模型进行模拟,分析结果表明,地表径流、基流年内变化趋势与降水量变化趋势一致,蒸散发是该地区水量的主要输出项,地表径流是基流的2倍左右,地表径流相对于降水有滞后性,基流滞后于降水3个月时间。

Application of Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)Modd in the research of the effects of climate change on water resources: A case study in central agricultural area of Henan Province

In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on water resources,an evaluation model for the upper reaches of Shahe River(the central agricultural area of Henan Province)was set up,based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model.By using 1:4000000 digital river data.the error automatically produced by using 1:250000 DEM was removed.In the meantime.the hydrological and meteorological data in 1999-2002 and 2003-2006 were respectively applied to calibrate and verify the model.based on the sensitivity analysis of parameters.During the calibration period,the E_(ns)=0.96 and r~2=0.95;and during the verification period,the E_(ns)=0.81 and r~2=0.87.Both of these indicated that the model could be successfully applied to simulate the monthly runoff.The simulhted results from 1966 to 2007 showed that the surface runoff and groundwater had the same changing Rend with precipitation.Evapotranspiration Was the main output of the water resources in the area,and the surface runoff was about 2 times of the groundwater.The runoff showed a lag behind precipitation,and the precipitation lagged 3 months to become groundwater.