工业城市(沈阳)能源消耗碳排放的影响因素分解及实证分析

沈阳作为我国东北地区中心城市和重工业城市,能源消费持续增长趋势及以煤为主的能源结构在短期内很难改变。由于能源消费是碳排放的主要来源,所以碳排放在未来一段时间必然会持续增长。论文根据《2006年IPCC温室气体排放清单指南》温室气体排放计算方法,并且充分考虑没有燃烧充分的燃料,计算了沈阳市2005-2009年能源消耗碳排放,采用LMDI(Logarithmic mean divisia index)分解法定量分析了单位GDP能耗、能源结构、经济发展对沈阳市能源消耗碳排放的影响。结果表明经济发展对沈阳市碳排放增长有促进作用,单位GDP能耗降低对碳排放呈现抑制作用,而能源结构对碳排放作用甚微。这说明以煤为主的能源结构未发生根本性的改变,经济规模的扩大使得单位GDP能耗抑制作用逐渐降低,碳排放将会持续增长。

Impact factors decomposition and empirical analysis of energy consumption carbon emissions in Shenyang, China

Shenyang,as the largest metropolis and heavy industrial city in Northeastern China,will continue to consume more energy sources.Its energy structure mainly relies on fossil fuel and such a structure cannot be changed in the short term.This results in increasing CO₂ emission.Therefore,understanding the status and driving forces of CO₂ emission in Shenyang is critical for addressing related mitigation policies.In this study by adopting IPCC method and taking account of the not fully combustion of fuel,we are inventorying greenhouse gas emissions in Shenyang for the period of 2005-2009 and then analyze the driving forces for the historical evolution of CO₂ emission from energy intensity,energy structure and economic activities perspectives.The results indicate that the total scale of economic activities is the main driving force for the increase of carbon emissions,while energy consumption per unit GDP is decreasing due to scientific improvement and energy structure have limited impacts on total CO₂ emission.Results illustrate that the fossil fuel-based energy structure has been stable during this period,and the increasing economic scale offsets the improvement of energy intensity,resulting in increasing CO₂ emission.