The speciation history and systematics of Carthamus (Asteraceae) with special emphasis on Turkish species by integrating phylogenetic and Ecological Niche Modelling data

To discuss the classification and possible scenarios for the speciation of Carthamus species in Turkey, 143 species occurrence data from Turkey used in Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM), ITS sequences of 23 available species gathered from the GenBank and current distribution information were used. The ENM was carried out by using MAXENT software. Among the 19 bioclimatic variables used in ENM, precipitation of coldest quarter (25 %), mean temperature of driest quarter (19 %) and annual precipitation (17 %) parameters have the highest percent contribution to the resulting prediction pattern, respectively. Bayesian-based phylogenetic analysis with divergence time estimation was implemented to obtain phylogenetic history of Carthamus species. Statistical dispersal–vicariance analysis and Bayesian binary MCMC analysis were also used to discuss biogeographical inferences. An identification key for Turkish Carthamus species that is in accordance with phylogenies was given. Ancestral area reconstruction analyses pointed out that the Western Asia region was the ancestral area for Carthamus species and in the Pliocene/Pleistocene period they started to diversify. Also ENM results clearly indicate that especially Anatolian species used Aegean and Mediterranean coastal part of Anatolia as potential refugia.