Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted |
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| Authors: | Erin A Mordecai Krijn P Paaijmans Leah R Johnson Tal Ben‐Horin Emily de Moor Amy McNally Samraat Pawar Sadie J Ryan Thomas C Smith Kevin D Lafferty |
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| Institution: | 1. Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology Department, University of California, , Santa Barbara, CA, 93106 USA;2. Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Entomology, Penn State University, Merkle Lab, , PA, 16802 USA;3. Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, , Chicago, IL, 60637 USA;4. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, , Santa Barbara, CA, 93106 USA;5. Geography Department, University of California, , Santa Barbara, CA, 93106 USA;6. Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, , Los Angeles, CA, 90095‐1766 USA;7. Department of Environmental and Forest Biology and Division of Environmental Science, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York, , Syracuse, NY, 13210 USA;8. Western Ecological Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Marine Science Institute, University of California, , Santa Barbara, CA, 93106 USA |
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| Abstract: | The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life‐history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal‐response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission. |
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| Keywords: |
Anopheles
climate change disease ecology malaria
Plasmodium falciparum
temperature |
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