Effects of changes in turbidity and phosphate influx on the ecosystem of the Ems estuary as obtained by a computer simulation model

In the Ems estuary the gradients in the concentration of nutrients and in turbidity (the factors that mainly determine the amount of carbon assimilated by phytoplankton) are steep. The effects of changing the turbidity in the estuary and the amount of phosphate discharged by the rivers Ems and Westerwoldsche Aa were analysed, using the simulation model developed by BOEDE (Biological Research Ems-Dollard estuary). The results of several sensitivity runs were compared with the standard run.A 50% reduction of turbidity led to a strong increase in phytoplanktonbiomass, especially in the inner parts of the estuary where turbidity is high. On average, the effects are two to three times larger for the inner part than for the outer part of the estuary. When the turbidity doubles the opposite occurs resulting in a significant decrease of phytoplankton biomass in the upper reaches. In the lower reaches of the estuary a 50% reduction in the river discharge of phosphate is largely compensated for by changes in phosphate transport from the North Sea. This results in a nearly unchanged primary production in the lower reaches as compared with the standard run.In the upper reaches a 50% reduction of phosphate loads results in a strongly reduced primary production.In general, the zooplankton groups (copepods and microzooplankton) are influenced less than the phytoplankton. Benthic fauna is hardly influenced, except for filter feeders; which are strongly affected by the total density of the particles, a parameter which also is directly related to turbidity.