Persistence of high diversity in non-equilibrium ecological communities: implications for modern and fossil ecosystems

Explaining the origin and maintenance of biodiversity is critical for understanding the potential consequences of present-day environmental change on ecological communities, as well as the evolutionary history of ecosystems in the Earth's past. Much effort in theoretical ecology has focused on identifying mechanisms that promote stable coexistence of species at equilibrium. However, in a consumer-resource model of competition along an environmental gradient, high-diversity assemblages have the potential to persist in non-equilibrium states for millions of generations with very little species loss. Species' populations in such competitively accommodated communities show slow drift; if disrupted, they rapidly reorganize into alternative persistent states. Fossil examples of prolonged ecological stability lasting 1-5 Myr punctuated by rapid reorganization (e.g. brachiopods from the Permian Reef of west Texas) suggest that some palaeocommunities represent a record of periodically disrupted transient states rather than stable equilibria. The similarity between the theoretical results reported here and palaeontological data suggests that the maintenance of high-diversity communities, both in the past and present, may reflect long-duration, non-equilibrium transient dynamics. If so, this has implications for the response of such communities to present-day environmental change, as well as for the evolution of lineages in such systems.