Temperature-dependent bionomics and modeling of Anarsia lineatella (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) in the laboratory

Laboratory studies were conducted to assess the effect of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) on life history traits of peach twig borer, Anarsia lineatella Zeller (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae). Developmental rate, survival, longevity, and fecundity were studied in environmental chambers from individuals reared on peach, Prunus persica L., twigs until adulthood. Temperature-dependent relationships of various developmental events were characterized, and applied models were evaluated. Total developmental time ranged from 20.4 d (30 degrees C) to 124 d (15 degrees C). Lower developmental thresholds for egg-to-adult development assessed to 11.2 or 11.8 degrees C, according to a linear weighted regression or the reduced major axis method, whereas development required on average 400 degree days (DD) or 424.4, respectively. Survival was substantially reduced at lower (15 degrees C) and higher (35 degrees C) temperatures. First-instar larvae exhibited higher sensitivities during development in all treatments. Mean longevity ranged from 12.1 d (35 degrees C) to 45.8 d (15 degrees C) and from 10.4 d (15 degrees C) to 50.3 d (35 degrees C) for females and males, respectively. A significantly higher number of eggs was laid at the moderate temperatures (126.9 at 25 degrees C), whereas at the extremes, females laid the fewest (40.4 and 26.3 at 15 and 35 degrees C, respectively). A new model, based on a beta type distribution function, fitted on the temperature-dependant developmental data to predict population dynamics. Relative accuracy of the above-mentioned formula was validated using root mean square error (RMSE), index of agreement (d) and the mean square error quotient (E1,2) with respect to a proved model.