北美刺龙葵在中国的适生区预测

【背景】北美刺龙葵是一种全球广泛分布的恶性杂草,已被列入我国进境检疫性有害生物名单。近年来北美刺龙葵不断随进口货物传入我国,明确其传入途径和适生区对控制其入侵具有重要意义。【方法】采用GIS、空间统计学、Maxent生态位模型等方法分析了北美刺龙葵的传入途径与潜在分布区,并通过ROC分析法对模型进行检验。【结果】跨区域农产品贸易是北美刺龙葵全球扩散的驱动力与传入我国的主要途径。生态模型预测结果表明,北美刺龙葵在我国具有广阔的适生区,除黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古、青海、甘肃、西藏、四川西北部以外的区域都是其在我国的适生区,其中高风险区主要集中在东部和南部沿海、西南边境和新疆的部分地区。AUC值为0.789,表明本研究建立的Maxent模型的预测能力较强,能够很好地拟合物种已知分布的环境生态位。【结论与意义】北美刺龙葵在我国的传入风险极高。基于北美刺龙葵在我国的主要传入途径与潜在扩散媒介的时空分布,划定了重点监测的区域,建议对适生区内极易传入的高风险区如港口、机场、物流中转站、加工厂等开展早期监测预警,以预防其再次入侵与进一步扩散蔓延。

Predicting the potential invasive distribution of Solanum carolinense in China

Background] Solanum carolinense is a notorious weed in America where it is native and other countries in Europe and Asia where it is introduced. In recent decade, S. carloninense has been declared a harmful quarantine weed in China since it invaded southern China as its seeds were frequently intercepted from imported commodities. It is necessary to identify areas at risk of an invasion and develop an efficient management strategy.Method] GIS and spatial statistics were used to reconstruct worldwide invasion dynamics and identify its introduction vectors. MaxEnt niche modeling was applied to predict the potential distribution of S. carolinense in China and the model performance was evaluated by Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve.Result] Its historical introduction from native America to other continents showed that the trade of commodities containing seeds promoted its invasion and spread across the world. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.789, which indicated that climatic niche models on the basis of native data had a highly predictive ability. And thus the modeled climatic niches were projected on to the landscape of the China. With the exception of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu, Tibet, northwestern parts of Sichuan, most areas in China were potential areas for S. carolinense invasion.Conclusion and significance] High introduction risk with increasing trade coupled with large potentially available distribution area may lead to increased invasion in the future. An early monitoring and eradication program should be adopted in the highly vulnerable areas, including coastal harbors, airports, transfer stations and processing factories of the imported cereal grains or fodder crops, to prevent further invasion and spread.