气候变化情景下中国荒漠锦鸡儿潜在适生区的时空变化分析

荒漠锦鸡儿是一种强旱生矮灌木,主要分布在荒漠草原和草原化荒漠中。该研究以植物志和数字标本库中获取的130条记录生成的荒漠锦鸡儿分布记录样点图为基础,运用组合模型(ESDM)模拟荒漠锦鸡儿在末次冰盛期、全新世中期、当前和未来(2030s)气候情景下的潜在地理分布,通过ArcGIS计算适生区面积及质心迁移轨迹,探讨末次冰盛期以来气候变迁对荒漠锦鸡儿分布的影响,为气候变化背景下荒漠锦鸡儿的保护提供理论基础。结果表明:(1)降水因子对荒漠锦鸡儿分布的影响高于温度因子和地形因子。(2)当前荒漠锦鸡儿的中、高适生区面积为10.172×10^(5) km^(2),质心位于阿拉善左旗。(3)末次冰盛期质心向东南迁移至全新世中期质心,继而向东北迁移至当前质心,荒漠锦鸡儿能较好地适应末次冰盛期寒冷干燥的环境。(4)在未来RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP6.0情景下,荒漠锦鸡儿中、高适生区面积均成增加趋势,但RCP8.5情景下的适生区面积却比当前减少了1.981×105 km^(2)。研究推测,轻度的气候变暖有利于荒漠锦鸡儿的生存与分布。

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Potential Suitable Areas of Caragana roborovskyi in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Caragana roborovskyi is a strong arid dwarf shrub, mainly distributed in desert steppe and steppe desert. This research is based on sampling-point map of distribution records of C. roborovskyi, generated from 130 records obtained from herbals and digital specimen databases, and used ensemble model to simulate the potential geographical distribution of C. roborovskyi during the LGM, Mid-Holocene, current and future climate scenarios (2030s), and used ArcGIS to calculate the suitable area and centroid migration trajectory to discuss the effects of climatic variation since the Last Glacial Maximum on the distribution of C. roborovskyi. The impact of climate change on the distribution of C. roborovskyi will provide a theoretical basis for the protection of C. roborovskyi under the background of climate change. The results showed that: (1) the effect of precipitation factor on the distribution of C. roborovskyi was higher than that of temperature factor and terrain factor; (2) In the current, the medium and high suitable regions of C. roborovskyi was 10.172×10⁵ km², and the centroids were located in Alxa Left Banner; (3) The centroid of LGM moved southeast to the centroid of Mid-Holocene, and then moved northeast to current centroid. C. roborovskyi could better adapt to the cold and dry environment of Last Glacial Maximum; (4) Under the future RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios, the area of medium and high suitable regions significantly increased, but under the condition of RCP8.5, the area was decreased by 1.981×10⁵ km² compared with the current situation. It is speculated that the mild climate warming was beneficial to the survival and distribution of C. roborovskyi.