Local ecosystem feedbacks and critical transitions in the climate |
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| Authors: | Max Rietkerk Victor Brovkin Peter M. van Bodegom Martin Claussen Stefan C. Dekker Henk A. Dijkstra Sergey V. Goryachkin Pavel Kabat Egbert H. van Nes Anje-Margriet Neutel Sharon E. Nicholson Carlos Nobre Vladimir Petoukhov Antonello Provenzale Marten Scheffer Sonia I. Seneviratne |
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| Affiliation: | aDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands;bThe Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany;cVU University Amsterdam, Department of Systems Ecology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;dDepartment of Physics and Astronomy, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, NL-3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands;eInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 117901, Russia;fEarth System Science and Climate Change Group, Wageningen University, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;gAquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;hBritish Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingly Rd., Cambridge CB3 OET, UK;iDepartment of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA;jCPTEC/INPE, Sao Paulo, Brazil;kPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Postdam, Germany;lInstitute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, CNR, I-10133 Turin, Italy;mInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, CHN N11, Universitätsstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | Global and regional climate models, such as those used in IPCC assessments, are the best tools available for climate predictions. Such models typically account for large-scale land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, these models omit local vegetation-environment feedbacks that may be crucial for critical transitions in ecosystems at larger scales. In this viewpoint paper, we propose the hypothesis that, if the balance of feedbacks is positive at all scales, local vegetation-environment feedbacks may trigger a cascade of amplifying effects, propagating from local to large scale, possibly leading to critical transitions in the large-scale climate. We call for linking local ecosystem feedbacks with large-scale land-atmosphere feedbacks in global and regional climate models in order to improve climate predictions. |
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| Keywords: | Climate Complexity Ecosystems Feedbacks Hierarchy Scales |
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