Cyst bank life-history model for a fairy shrimp from ephemeral ponds

1. Ephemeral wetland habitats provide a useful model system for studying how life‐history patterns enable populations to persist despite high environmental variation. One important life‐history trait of both plants and crustaceans in such habitats involves hatching/germination of only some of the eggs/seeds at any time. This bet‐hedging leads to the development of a bank composed of dormant propagules of many ages. 2. The San Diego fairy shrimp, Branchinecta sandiegonensis (Crustacea: Anostraca), a dominant faunal element of ephemeral ponds in San Diego, California, is a suitable organism for studying the consequences of highly fluctuating environmental conditions. As a result of large‐scale habitat loss, the species is also endangered, and this motivated our specific study towards understanding the hatching dynamics of its egg bank for planning conservation efforts such as pool restoration and re‐creation. 3. We formulated a matrix population model using egg age within the bank to study the relationship between adult survival and reproduction, and survival in and hatching from the egg bank. As vital rates for fairy shrimp are only poorly known, we generated 48 matrices with parameters encompassing ranges of likely values for the vital rates of B. sandiegonensis. We calculated population growth rates and eigenvalue elasticities both for a static model and a model with periodic reproductive failure. 4. The model shows that in good filling events, population growth rate is very high and the egg bank is increased dramatically. While population growth rate is insensitive to long‐term survival in the egg bank in our static deterministic model, it becomes sensitive to survival in the egg bank when a regime of periodically failed reproductive events is imposed. 5. Under favourable conditions, it was best for shrimp to hatch from eggs as soon as possible. However, under a regime where failed reproductive events were common, it was best to hatch after several pool fillings. Because conditions change from favourable to unfavourable unpredictably, variation in age within the egg bank appears to be critical for the persistence of the population. This attribute needs to be carefully considered when restoring or creating new pools for conservation purposes.