Persistence of predator-prey systems in an uncertain environment

Summary The time derivatives of prey and predator populations are assumed to satisfy a set of inequalities, instead of a precise differential equation, reflecting an uncertain environmental and/or lack of knowledge by the modeler. A system of differential equations is found whose solution gives the boundary of a persistent set, which is positive flow invariant for any system satisfying the inequalities. Conditions are given for the persistent set to be bounded away from both axes, which show that resonance effects cannot drive either predator or prey to extinction if that does not happen for an autonomous system satisfying the inequalities. In general predator-prey systems are more persistent when there is strong asymptotic stability, when there is correlation between prey and predator dynamics, when the effect of perturbations is density dependent, and are more persistent under perturbations of the prey than of the predator.