Use of Shields stress to reconstruct and forecast changes in river metabolism

1. Discharge patterns of streams and rivers may be substantially affected by changes in water management, land use, or climate. Such hydrological alterations are likely to influence biotic processes, including overall ecosystem metabolism (photosynthesis and respiration). One regulator of aquatic ecosystem metabolism directly tied to hydrology is movement of bed sediments. 2. We propose that ecosystem metabolism can be reconstructed or predicted for any suite of hydrological conditions through the use of quantitative relationships between discharge, bed movement and metabolism. We tested this concept on a plains reach of the South Platte River in Colorado. 3. Movement of bed sediments was predicted from river discharge and the Shields stress, a ratio of velocity‐induced stress to sediment grain size. Quantitative relationships were established empirically between metabolic response to bed movement and recovery from bed movement, thus linking metabolism to hydrology. 4. The linkage of metabolism to hydrology allowed us to reconstruct daily photosynthesis and respiration over the 70‐year period for which discharge is known at our study site on the South Platte River. The reconstruction shows major ecological change caused by hydrological manipulation: the river has lost two‐thirds of its photosynthetic potential, and the ratio of photosynthesis to respiration is now much lower than it was prior to 1960. 5. The same approach could be used to anticipate ecological responses to proposed hydrological manipulations, to quantify benefits of hydrological restoration, or to illustrate potential effects of change in climate or land use on flowing‐water ecosystems.