中国柯属5种资源植物潜在地理分布及其对气候变化的响应

利用最大墒模型和地理信息系统软件对柯属（Lithocarpus）5种资源植物在我国的适宜分布区进行了定量预测，并对未来不同气候情景下其分布区的变化进行了分析。结果显示：木姜叶柯（L.litseifolius（Hance）Chun.）在我国秦岭淮河以南广泛分布，短尾柯（L.brevicaudatus（Skan）Hay.）主要分布在我国亚热带中东部区域；木姜叶柯在未来气候（2061-2080年）RCP2.6、RCP8.5两种情景下适生区面积分别减少了5.1%和3.0%，而短尾柯却分别增加了0.5%和1.5%。白柯（L.dealbatus（Hook.f.et Thoms.ex DC.）Rehd.）适宜区主要分布在云南北部、四川南部，烟斗柯（L.corneus（Lour.）Rehd.）主要分布在两广省份的南亚热带地区。白柯和烟斗柯在RCP2.6情景下适生区面积分别减少了12.1%和17.8%，在RCP8.5情景下分别减少了3.5%和15.9%，这两个种的适宜区面积减少较多。厚斗柯（L.elizabethae（Tutch.）Rehd.）主要分布于广西，在两种情景下适宜区面积分别增加了7.3%和6.3%。研究结果表明，由于分布区存在差异，同属不同物种的未来分布对气候变化的响应不同。

Potential geographical distribution of five Lithocarpus species in China and their response to climate change

In this paper, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS 10.3) software were used to quantitatively model the suitable distribution of five economically valuable Lithocarpus species in China and to predict their future distribution under two different climate scenarios. Results showed that L. litseifolius (Hance) Chun. was widely distributed south of the Huaihe River in the Qinling Mountains of China, whereas L. brevicaudatus (Skan) Hay. was mainly distributed in the central and eastern subtropical regions of China. Under future climate (2061-2080) scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), the suitable distribution areas for L. litseifolius decreased by 5.1% and 3.0%, respectively, whereas those for L. brevicaudatus increased by 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Results also showed that L. dealbatus (Hook. f. et Thoms. ex DC.) Rehd. was mainly distributed in northern Yunnan and southern Sichuan, whereas L. corneus (Lour.) Rehd. was mainly distributed in the southern subtropical regions of Guangdong and Guangxi. Under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the suitable distribution areas for L. dealbatus decreased by 12.1% and 3.5% and for L. corneus decreased by 17.8% and 15.9%, respectively. In addition, L. elizabethae (Tutch.) Rehd. was mainly distributed in Guangxi and under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, suitable distribution area increased by 7.3% and 6.3%, respectively. Thus, based on differences in geographical distribution, these sympatric tree species exhibited different distribution responses to future climatic change. By predicting the distribution of potential suitable areas of the five Lithocarpus species under different climate change scenarios, this study provides strategic guidance for their future protection and utilization.